HHURRICANE Dean almost CATEGORY 5

[lalecl]

...DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES...1660 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES...2400 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...11.7 N...39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

[lalecl]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

well here is Deans projected path .

AND we have something forming in the Gulf as well and even if it does not gain hurricane strength It can/WILL cause problems.


Come on folks please listen! Pay attention. Better to be prepared and nothing happen.

[img]http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v628/ipfyh55/UHAD_21.gif

YOU figure it out!

PLEASE CHECK IN NOW WHILE THINGS ARE GOOD AND SEND ME YOUR INFO..

A few have replied so i am begginG you Please do this

[lalecl]

...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

[Pasomom]

On the weather channel this morning, it looked like the projected path had dropped a hair lower, showing it heading to TX.... but it is still a long ways off for us to figure exactly where it will go. But eveyone needs to keep an eye on this boy!

[lalecl]

Carol and anyone in the Gulf coast area please check in with me.

For you Florida folks this does not mean we are off the hook

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v628/ipfyh55/UHAD_21-1.gif

[Carol Nelson]

Like I said in General Chit Chat...all is fine here...I love it! Cool and breezy, overcast but bright...although it's starting to darken again somewhat. Looks like we're just going to get some much needed rain out of this.
Now Dean makes me a little nervous...he's supposed to be bigger than Erin...Erin seems to have petered out over land.

[Pasomom]

You're right about that Leila...Florida still needs to watch this bad boy! No count on how many of those things wiggle around starting out one way then end up going another direction....No one really knows where they will go or where they will end up. Case in point.....Charley!! AND Jeanne...who did a complete loop in the Atlantic before it blasted it's way across most of Florida....and Wilma was heading for the TX coastline when it took an abrupt right hand turn and came across southern Florida. So watch this over the weekend and continue to watch its progress.

Start getting ready as it approaches....have plenty of animal feed as well as people food!~

[NAtlanta]

Just in case anyone would like links to good information:

www.flhurricane.com Central Florida Hurricane (chat room & forums available for questions)

www.flhurricane.com/recon/ (actual vortex reports from hurricane hunters)

www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp

www.nokr.org/nok/restricted/home.htm (national next of kin registry)

www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml (bouys in Gulf of Mexico)

www.skeetobiteweather.com/ (great graphics and current info)

www.wunderground.com/tropical/?MR=1 (dr.master's blog great explanations of all kinds of weather info)

www.hurricanecity.com/ (one of the oldest website focused on hurricane info)

www.hurricanetrack.com/


Those are a few that we follow when weather starts rolling in. Hope it helps!!!


Y'all don't forget when storms are approaching, waiting can get you stuck in massive traffic... my aunt got stranded at a rest stop on I-10 during one hurricane, luckily the storm died down instead of ramping up before landfall!!!

[lalecl]

HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO 135 MPH...

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
MB...27.93 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

[NAtlanta]

The NHC has just upgraded winds to 145. That was with the latest Hurricane Hunter plane info. Pressure down to 937mb.

[Carol Nelson]

Yes, this one is making me a bit nervous. :-?

[NAtlanta]

There are some really good indicators this will keep to a more westerly track... just keep your eye on it.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/ Has some good commentary. If you ever need information there is a chat room on www.flhurricane.com. There are usually some very knowledgeable people there with lots of links and explanations. You'll find me there most days as I am a moderator, but I don't know as much as the guys that come there in the evenings!

Lalecl is posting some great stuff!!!

Take care all.

[lalecl]

...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER...AND FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM
THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO
BARAHONA...AND FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE
NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS ALSO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI TONIGHT AND WILL BE NEAR
JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM. PUNTA CANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v628/ipfyh55/UHAD_21-2.gif

[PLEASURE PASOFINO]

I just had a chance to see the clips from the Southern Region of Dominican Republic! although they will not received (thanks God) a direct hit!!!! they are feeling the force!!! within 24 hours Hurricane will be hitting Jamaica!!!! is a Cat 5, Please prepare to safety and prepare your animals too!!!!! But if you leave in Low Land, now is the time to EVACUATE!!!!!!!! do not STAY put!!!!!

I know that we have many lookers out of MEXICO!!!!too!!!! The Yucatan Peninsula is not only a place for travelers (Cancun, Playa Del Carmen, Merida) but is also the home for many known horse farms!!!! this is the time to PREPARE!!!!!!!! do what you need to do!!!! stay inform......

Lets also keep in mind that the EAST side of the hurricane is the most Dangerous side!!!!! is where the strongest force having numerous tornadoes with it......

[Pasomom]

I sure do hope the Yucatan Penn. people are in the process of evacuation as we speak. This thing is going to hit them pretty darn hard. Everyone that is in the potential path, please be making plans and implementing them NOW! May the angels watch over those in the path.

[NAtlanta]

Dean is approaching a warm eddy in the waters ahead of him. This will only bring those numbers up. Dean just came out of a eyewall replacement cycle and did not lose much strength.

It won't be long now until CAT 5 is reached... probably by morning.

Prayers to all in the path!

[Pasomom]

Looks Like Jamaica is going to be whipped up on the north side of the eye, which is the worst side. We need as many prayers going up for these people as we can muster. May God be with them.

[PLEASURE PASOFINO]

"correction" I need to correct my earlier post, I said the EAST, I meant to say the NORTH EAST side of the hurricane!!!! thanks Pasomom!!!!!

[Pasomom]

NO problem.....You got it right now...that northeast side is the worst winds and tournados leading into the storm. My heart goes out to those people in the path now.

[lalecl]

posting at 4 am reduced to 145 mph winds for now
not sleepy watching to see which way it goes



...DEAN HEADING TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 2 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARAHONA TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF CABO CAUCEDO
TO CABO ENGANO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
CAUCEDO WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CUBA...FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING WESTERN
CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL BE NEAR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA
COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB.

[lalecl]

HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN VERY NEAR CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...
...OUTER BANDS ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA
DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW
NEAR 155 MPH...245 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AND DEAN IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.